CA Primary Could Be Rosetta Stone of GOP Race
Watch what happens in California tomorrow. The race is tightening up there — RealClearPolitics has Sen. John McCain up by 2.2 on its rolling average of polling in the state. That’s quite a swing in the numbers in just a week, which is the same thing we saw happen in Michigan where McCain lead Mitt Romney by 6 points right after winning New Hampshire only to see the numbers flop and turn into a 10-point loss. (See NR’s Byron York’s take.)
California, like Michigan, apportions its delegates by a winner-takes-all by congressional district, and there are 53 of them there. If Romney can win the state and take a majority the delegates, he might be able to fight it out for the remaining delegates post-Super-Duper Tuesday. If McCain wins CA and a majority of its delegates — coupled with anticipated wins in NY and NJ, which are winner-take-all states — he will solidify the Big Mo he’s been building these last few weeks and wrap up the nomination, most likely.
On similar note…Michael Medved says the reality of McCain’s surge is simple: conservatives are supporting him.
Tags: California, McCain, Michigan, Politics, Romney
February 7, 2008 at 12:01 am
“On similar note…Michael Medved says the reality of McCain’s surge is simple: conservatives are supporting him.”
It really depends on how the word “conservative” is defined. Currently this is one of the most poorly defined and overused words in the U.S. Politicians know that voters like conservatives, so even diehard liberal Democrats like Hillary try to adopt the label.
So I’d say the statement by Medved is really meaningless.
More critical is the fact that McCain is getting much of his support from independents, liberal Republicans, and even Democrats, many planning to vote Democrat in November. But grassroots Republicans, the people who faithfully make donations, help candidates, and show up to vote Republican in general elections - have been supporting almost everyone BUT McCain.
These party faithful are upset with McCain’s long track record of stabbing the Republican party in the back on important issues, a problem which is not only well documented but painfully remembered by many loyal voters. So the real question is, will conservatives use November as an opportunity to pay back McCain for all his years of betrayal to the GOP, or will they swallow their pride and vote for him anyway?