I am not sure he said much, but it was 20 minutes of the best election night speech I’ve heard in a long time. I was ready to send him money until Mrs. LBC hit me up side my head.

Watch what happens in California tomorrow. The race is tightening up there — RealClearPolitics has Sen. John McCain up by 2.2 on its rolling average of polling in the state. That’s quite a swing in the numbers in just a week, which is the same thing we saw happen in Michigan where McCain lead Mitt Romney by 6 points right after winning New Hampshire only to see the numbers flop and turn into a 10-point loss. (See NR’s Byron York’s take.)

California, like Michigan, apportions its delegates by a winner-takes-all by congressional district, and there are 53 of them there. If Romney can win the state and take a majority the delegates, he might be able to fight it out for the remaining delegates post-Super-Duper Tuesday. If McCain wins CA and a majority of its delegates — coupled with anticipated wins in NY and NJ, which are winner-take-all states — he will solidify the Big Mo he’s been building these last few weeks and wrap up the nomination, most likely.

On similar note…Michael Medved says the reality of McCain’s surge is simple: conservatives are supporting him.

So says king strategist Karl Rove, who writes in his column today in The Wall Street Journal:

The 20th century’s closing decades saw the rise of the TV ad man as the most potent operator in presidential campaigns. The 21st century’s opening decade is seeing the rise of the communications director and press spokesman as the more important figures on a campaign staff. It is the age of the Internet, cable TV, YouTube, multiple news cycles in one day, and the need for really instantaneous response. Ads and ad makers are still vital — but not nearly as much as they were just a few years ago.

That’s what I’ve been trying to tell my bosses for years. Maybe “500 miles and a briefcase” will make them take note. Just kidding, guys!

Seriously, communication methods have completely changed and revolutionized how campaigns are run. When I started as a reporter, I could do my job with a notebook and a pay phone. Today, reporters are journalist generalists doing everything from news gathering to news delivery, with video editing and blogging spiced in for good measure. The same is true on campaigns.

When I made the switch to politics — when fax machines still had paper on rolls — it was what release are we sending out today, or right now. The communication shop supported the broader message of what was up on the airwaves. Today, that’s completely inverted.

Your modern, well-stocked campaign will have a communication shop that rivals anything on Madison Ave., complete with in-house video and audio production crews, writers, bloggers, Web coders, press handlers, spokespersons, researchers and more. Running the show is a person who has more in common with the executive producer of a major network news channel than the old comm. dir. who was not much more than a good writer with a fancy title.

There’s a logical reason for this shift. As communication mediums “flattened out” — meaning that more and more people were able to produce and receive content directly from a source — so did campaign communication efforts. Campaigns now can provide content directly to potential voters without having to go though an intermediary (newspaper or TV broadcast or paid advertisement.) If I can send a 30-second video message from my candidate directly to 300,000 cell phones or e-mail “boxes” in an instant, why would spend all day trying to get a reporter to cover the same issue, run it through the filer that is his or her own natural bias and the bias of three to five editors who also will “touch” the story, and then put it up on a website that — maybe — 40,000 people will visit in an average day? I wouldn’t, and don’t.

When there are no news cycles because there is always a new news cycle on the horizon, and when campaigns can communicate directly with voters in an instant, with a message targeted toward issues they car about, the role of the campaign communication director will continue to ascend.

Things are really coming together for the Oct. 9 GOP Presidential Candidates Debate in Dearborn.

Looks like we will have nearly 300 registered journalists from around the world. Ford, GM and Chrysler are all going to have their newest-soon-to-be-out models on site for the world to see at the debate (maybe even a surprise…shhhhhhh!).

The Detroit News’ David Shepardson has a story today about how the Big Three will demand the candidates’ attention:

GOP debate to spotlight Big 3 issues

In Dearborn next week, candidates are expected to be quizzed about trade, fuel economy, jobs.

David Shepardson / Detroit News Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON — The future of the struggling domestic auto industry will be front and center Tuesday when nine Republican GOP candidates debate economic issues in the shadow of Ford’s world headquarters in Dearborn.

Detroit’s Big Three say it is a critical opportunity to address the future of the industry. General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC are not only sponsoring the debate, but also, outside the Ford Community & Performing Arts Center, showing off their vehicles.

About 1,100 people will get see the debate in person at the Ford Community & Performing Arts Center (which, if you have not been there is definitely worth the trip. When we took the NBC folks through the facility in August they were wowed, and these guys have seen everything. One producer said: “This is as good or better than anything on Broadway without the hassle.”)

Hat’s off to Dearborn Mayor John B. O’Reilly, Jr. and his staff. They have opened the city to this debate and bent over backwards to make it a success. See….Republicans and Democrats can work together!

Alan Keyes…

I awoke this morning to several hundred e-mails in my Inbox from Keyes supporters upset that he will not on stage Tuesday. I have nothing against Mr. Keyes. I like him and respect his principled stance on important issues. But we have a debate to run and when we were deciding who to invite to the debate, our decision was based on those individuals who had active, federally registered campaigns, and who were actively seeking the GOP nomination.

Michigan law requires the chairman of the respective state parties to submit the names of candidates to be included on the Jan. 15 presidential primary ballot. Chairman Anuzis did that as required by law, and, based upon the criteria mentioned above, Mr. Keyes was not included — neither was Newt Gingrich, whom at the time was mentioned as a presidential candidate. It is from that list, which is now official, that the debate participants were selected.

This is a “Republican Presidential Candidates” debate, not a debating society social. Mr. Keyes is not a candidate from what just about any reasoned person would judge as one. Even the AlanKeys.com site is run by a Political Action Committee called “We Need Alan Keys for President, Inc.” It plays itself off as a presidential site, but it is not. Long story short. These are the very sensible and real reasons Mr. Keyes was not invited to this debate. There will be many more in the coming months, and should Mr. Keyes become a serious presidential candidate, I am sure he will be invited to participate.

OK, this means absolutely nothing, but I find it interesting and mildly amusing…

So far, there are 1,664 blog postings about the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference and only 359 stories in the MSM. Now there were about a 100 credentialed media types at the conference, and I talked to most of them, including the bloggers. So, I know a lot others were following the event over the ‘net. Great job, fellow bloggers, for picking up on one of the leading political stories/events of the week.

Technorati Tags: Mackinac+Conference, Republican, Thompson, Giuliani, Romney, McCain, Brownback, Tancredo, Ron+Paul, Hunter

Both former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and California Congressman Duncan Hunter revved up the the more than 2000 Republicans and 100 assorted media gathered at the biennial Mackinac Leadership Conference.  Giuliani spoke first at the opening night dinner while attendees patiently waited for their food.  Other than my wife, who appeared ready to begin gnawing at her high heels, nobody seemed to mind giving Rudy the chance to be the main course.

 Rudy didn’t disappoint, telling a story about the time a reporter asked him what he could for Michigan.  The answer:  “Get you a new governor!”  The crowd roared.   He talked about how New York City was in terrible shape when he became mayor — with 10.5 percent unemployment a $2.3 billion deficit and 65 percent of residents saying they would rather live somewhere else.  He said the principles he used to turn the city around are the same principles that can turn Michigan around — lower taxes, smaller government and less regulation.

Rudy blasted the Democratic candidates for president for wanting to raise taxes to fund socialized medicine and asked for people in the audience if they wanted to go to Cuba for medical care.  If you do, he said, Michael Moore will take you and Hillary Clinton will pay.

In an interesting twist, Giuliani said he recently read a book by French president Nicolas Sarkosy in which he talks about wanting to reform France by cutting the corporate tax rate (which is already lower than the U.S.) and also getting the French to work more than 35 hours per week (through tax incentives for extra work).  Then, Rudy said he has had a recurring dream since reading the book.   In the dream, Sarkozy is on a plane flying to America to learn how we solve problems and his plane has to suddenly swerve to miss a plane coming from the U.S.  The planes fly so close together, he can see three people on board who are flying to France to study the French system and bring it back to the U.S.  Can you guess who was on that plane – Clinton, Obama and Edwards!

Rudy really charged up the crowd when he talked about the Islamic Terrorists War on Us.  He said this was a more accurate description than the War on Terror.  Essentially, he said this election is about whether we stay on offense, with the Patriot Act, tough interrogation policies and fighting for freedom in Iraq and Afghanistan or going back to playing defense like the 1990s when the first World Trade Center bombing and other terrorist attacks (like the Tanzanian embassy, Khobar Towers and the U.S.S. Cole) were virtually ignored and treated like criminal offenses.

Finally, Rudy blasted Moveon.org for its shameful attack on General Petraeus and then turned his fire on Hillary Clinton for voting no on the Senate resolution supporting Petraeus and condemning the scurrilous attack on him in the New York Times.  He said the bottom line is that Hillary is afraid of taking on Moveon.org.  And the crowd went wild when he said “if you can’t stand up to Moveon.org, how can you stand up to Ahmadinejad, etc.”  Frankly, the applause was so loud I couldn’t hear the end of his sentence.

Cong. Hunter took a different approach but also impressed the crowd with his passion and his depth of experience, especially on defense issues.  In particular, he talked about leveling the playing field to revitalize American manufacturing as a national security concern.  He said that bringing good paying jobs back to our country (through fair trade and stopping Chinese cheating) was the key to bringing Reagan Democrats back to the Republic Party.

Hunter focused on an issue that has been a priority for him in Congress — making sure American companies are at the top of the list for defense contracts.  This also means making sure that foreign countries who aren’t our allies shouldn’t be the source of critical parts or weapons systems.  These are critical components like guidance systems for smart bombs and armor plating for troop-carrying humvees.

Hunter told a great story, linking together the heroism of Medal of Honor recipients from WWII, Vietnam and the Iraq War, noting that in the first instance our troops saved hundreds of millions of people from tyranny, in the second, we left with the job undone and now we can’t let that happen again.  He also grabbed the attention of crowd when he talked about we can’t just worry about Iraq; we must also be concerned about how China is arming itself with high-tech weapons — planes, destroyers, submarines, ballistic missiles — at an alarming rate.

The audience also perked up when he talked about border security and his work building a fence to stop smuggling across the border from Tijuana to San Diego.  He said crime was rampant and people were getting murdered and robbed before the fence was built.  Now, smuggling is down 90 percent.  The success of that fence led him to draft the legislation that passed last year and was signed by the president to build 854 miles of fence all the way to Texas.  He said only 30 miles of fence has been built to date and promised to finish the fence in six months if he became president.

A Vietnam veteran himself, Hunter closed by quoting from two letters, one from a soldier coming home from WWII, talking about the importance of family and other from a Marine returning home from Iraq, talking about his family and how this war was to keep them safe and how family lifts us up and are the strength of this country.  There was not a dry eye in the house when Hunter said the letters were written by his father and his son, who at the time had just returned from Fallujah and the fiercest battles of the Iraq War.

NOTE:  Both Giuliani and Hunter were introduced by Rep. Candice Miller — Rudy because she is the chair of his Michigan campaign and Hunter because he is her long time colleague on the House Armed Services Committee.  After her passionate introductions,  I heard a number of people comment that they didn’t know Miller was such a good speaker.  She is definitely a crowd favorite.

Greetings from the Porch of the Grand Hotel, site of the 27th Biennial Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference.

Apologies for not posting in a few days…have been swamped preparing for this event, planning the Oct. 9th debate and doing interviews with French journalists (I either said “this is the biggest event ever” or “we are the fattest ever”, I am not sure.) Actually, the biggest hassle this week has been the last-minute frantic calls from journalists in NYC who just realized it’s a bear to get from Newark Airport to Mackinac Island…and you should have heard the pregnant pauses when I told them only horses and bikes for transportation on the island. “What do you mean, horses?” was a common response.

I am going to be updating over the weekend, so check back frequently. It should be a Grand event.

When you go to Rudy Giuliani’s presidential website you get the the following screen shot:

You cannot get to his presidential site, only a link to the National September 11 Memorial site.

What a great way to remember the day and remind people what it is that they like about you, that you were everyone’s mayor on that day. Great job, Team Rudy.

Technorati Tags: Giuliani, 9/11, President, Campaign

So much for Governor Granholm’s appeals to the Democratic presidential candidates to focus on Michigan’s problems and to participate in our state’s January 15th primary.  By signing a so-called “four state pledge” to not campaign in Michigan,  Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Richardson, Biden and Dodd have all essential ly said “drop dead” to our state.  Of course, to add insult to injury they will all continue to fundraise in Michigan because collecting what little money donors have left is not banned by the pledge.  Rank and file Michigan Democrats are left wondering where the love went.  Even our friends at Blogging for Michigan ran the screaming headline:  Obama, Edwards, Dodd, Richardson, Biden and HILLARY Must Not Become President.  Good point.  I couldn’t agree more.  BFM continues with these harsh words:

So, Obama, Edwards, Dodd, Richardson, Biden, and Hillary; if you don’t want Michigan delegates, then as far as I’m concerned, you don’t want Michigan electoral votes either.  Screw you. 

I guess that leaves Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel to campaign in Michigan under the Democrat banner.  In contrast, all the leading Republican contenders are committed to campaigning in Michigan.  In fact, all of them will be attending the Mackinac Leadership Conference later this month.  Let’s hope the MSM gives decent coverage to this landmark event.

This year’s Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference is shaping up to be the first GOP event of the primary season that will have all the tier-one and tier-two candidates in attendance. Not even the Ames Staw Poll could boast as much.

With the announcement today that former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson will be one of the key-note speakers, the Mackinac GOP conference now carries the full slate of Republican presidential hopefuls. Those candidates attending and speaking the anticipated 2,000 grassroots activists and donors include:

U.S. Sens. Sam Brownback and John McCain; U.S. Reps. Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul (Tom Tancredo invited but not confirmed); former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and Thompson. You can see the whole schedule here. Even former Speaker Newt Gingrich will be on the Island to rally the troops.

Like I said in other places, this is probably the largest crop of presidential candidates in one event — certainly when speaking of the Mackinac confab — so far in the race for the ‘08 nomination. This says something about the importance of Michigan in the GOP nominating process.

Speaking of Michigan’s importance in the nominating process…

There was a lot of ‘national’ buzz today about Michigan and the so-called deal to move up the presidential primary to Jan. 15, 2008. I spent most of the afternoon fielding calls from reporters from outside of Michigan (WaPo, the Globe, Concord (NH) Monitor, Politico and others) who suddenly have a keen interest in what’s happening in Michigan.

Of course, none of this is a done deal. The Michigan Legislature must pass legislation moving up the primary. While the Democrats are mum about whether Jan. 15 will be the date (it is the preferred date of U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, who has been pushing state Dems to move up the contest) it looks legislative leaders are ready to take up a bill when the state senate and house are in session Wednesday. One can only assume that there is a date in mind, Jan. 15 at the earliest and before Feb. 5 most certainly.

It should be an interesting week for Michigan politics.

Technorati Tags: Michigan, Politics, Republican, President, Primary, MackinacGOP